Mexico’s industrial real estate market began the year showing signs of adjustment following several quarters of accelerated growth. New real estate projects have been driving sector expansion, giving way to an environment where supply and availability levels are playing a greater role in each region’s performance.
At the close of Q1 2026, the Northeast and Central regions saw a slowdown in industrial construction starts, while the Bajío region stood out for a recovery in building activity at the start of the year.
Supply Recovery Drives Availability Higher in the Bajío
During Q1 2026, the Bajío industrial region — comprising the markets of Aguascalientes, Guadalajara, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and San Luis Potosí — recorded an increase in availability levels, reaching 20 million square feet (ft²), representing 5% growth compared to the previous quarter.
In line with this trend, the availability rate stood at 6.41%, up 27 basis points, driven primarily by the addition of new space to the market as well as certain vacancy processes, according to Alma Villalobos and Josué Roncancio, real estate analysts at Datoz.
This supply adjustment is occurring alongside a reactivation in construction activity. Construction starts showed a significant recovery at the start of the year, reaching 2.2 million ft² — the highest level recorded nationwide during any first quarter.
Among this new wave of projects, three speculative buildings stand out at the Kaizen II park in Querétaro, owned by Construye Industrial, totaling a net leasable area of 903,401 ft².
Overall, the Bajío maintains a positive trajectory, with sustained growth in inventory and construction activity, as well as the capacity to attract new projects in the short and medium term.
Center and Northeast Recorded Slight Declines in Construction
Unlike what was observed in the Bajío, the industrial regions of the Center and Northeast recorded a slowdown in construction starts during Q1 2026. However, both continue to show signs of resilience.
In the Northeast, construction starts totaled 566,000 ft², 86% less than the previous quarter. Notably, construction activity was limited to the Monterrey market, where a 98,996 ft² speculative building is underway, owned by Finsa in the Guadalupe submarket.
Additionally, the region’s availability rate has remained at relatively high levels in recent years, which may explain greater caution in new construction starts.
In the Central region, construction activity during this period reached 678,000 ft², representing an 85% decrease compared to Q4 2025. The primary project is a 539,000 ft² speculative building currently being developed by Distrito Panorama at its Panorama Tultepec park.
Unlike the Northeast, Mexico City’s availability rate has held at low levels, suggesting that despite the construction slowdown, the market maintains a positive near-term growth outlook.
Developers such as Distrito Panorama, Grupo Paragón, and Buró Property continue to strengthen their portfolios with new industrial projects in the region.
Tijuana Remains the Most Dynamic Market in the Northwest
In the Northwest region, construction starts during Q1 2026 grew 14% compared to the previous quarter. Sixty-two percent of activity was concentrated in the Tijuana market, with projects including La Herradura Park Building 1 at 106,939 ft², and Santa Fe Business Park UBIQ3 at 163,364 ft², the latter developed by Grupo Frisa in partnership with Fibra Macquarie.
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